How muck weight will I lose?

I am 15 and a half. I am about 6 ft tall and weigh about 200 lbs. Most of my body is thin I just have a bit of a belly. I will admit I drink a LOT of pop. But Im down to just a can with meals. The rest of the day I drink only water (at least four 16 ounce bottles a day). I dont eat much junk food. I dont have snacks at all really. My meals arent the healthiest but its not like Im eating a bucket of kfc for dinner every night. Ive started running/jogging 2 miles every day or so. All I want is to lose this belly fat (or at least trim it down a bit) before school. Do you think I can do it? Any tips?